Сегодня США представит данные по инфляции. Два сценария, которые повлияют на крипторынок

  • The US Federal Reserve will release new inflation data today
  • Expert Alex Krueger explained how the digital asset market will react to this
  • He described two options – with high and low CPI

Today the US Federal Reserve will present new data on inflation. Traditionally, every meeting, statement or decision of American regulators affects the entire asset market. Including the crypto segment. For example, one of the reasons for the “January” recession is cited as the Fed’s policy on interest rates.

Two scenarios for the future

Economist and crypto trader Alex Kruger said that the latest consumer price index (CPI) data will determine the next phase of the cryptocurrency market cycle.

“We’ll have US inflation data on Wednesday … If CPI declines, expect the rate to rise and will continue to grow in the future. If CPI rises, then BTC will fall to 30 10 dollars. Tradfi [традиционные финансы] will take care of that.

[…] Cryptocurrencies will follow bitcoins and bitcoins will follow stocks. ”

22 / If the number comes in line with the forecasts, at 7.1%, hard to tell, would make sense for bears to attempt to break the lows, fake breakout, and a rabid rally to ensue given the chart.

That said, crypto will follow bitcoin, and bitcoin will follow stocks.

– Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) January 9, 20140

According to Kruger, the Fed is ready for a downturn in the market. They will make such sacrifices to keep inflation under control.

Can the crypto industry be independent from the Fed ?

Krueger gives an unequivocal answer to this question: no, it cannot. When inflation is high, the Fed launches various mechanisms: increases the interest rate, reduces the purchase of assets, etc. Cryptocurrencies are very sensitive to government policies. If it is soft, then the market wins. A tight monetary policy moves investments to safer asset classes:

13 / How does that matter for crypto?

Simple. Crypto assets are at the furthest end of the risk curve.

Just as they benefited from extraoridnarily lax monetary policy, they suffer from unexpectedly tight monetary policy,

as money shifts away into safer asset classes.

– Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) January 9, 20140

“If the Fed is going to fight, then definitely, Houston, we have problems”

30 / And the final question is, can crypto ignore the Fed if it decides to go all out wielding a deflationary machete?

I doubt it

“Don’t fight the Fed” applies both ways, up and down.

If the Fed is too hawkish then Houston, we have a problem.


– AlexKrüger (@krugermacro) January 9, 20140

By the way, just yesterday we had a stream about why the market continues to fall. We offer you to watch:

Why does the market keep falling? What to expect next?