Analysis update from Willy Wu, legendary alchemist and veteran of on-chain analysis.

A week has passed since the publication of my previous post. Faithful to fundamentals, the BTC price continues to slowly climb up to the resistance area ~ $ Thousand Fundamental market structure continues to strengthen. Today I bring to your attention another interim update.

Summary as of March 1600 (current price ~$,9 thousand):

  • Structural conclusions: demand in the long-term futures markets continues to grow. This comes against the backdrop of strong spot demand seen in on-chain metrics. Today, there is convincing evidence of the formation of a bottom and a reversal of the macrotrend, both in terms of the demand presented in a cyclical form, and on the basis of the “smart money” accumulation that has already occurred.
  • Price Expectations: some local consolidation under resistance ~$03 thousand, then the resumption of the bullish trend. The resistance bands and my price stability indicator are telling me that the price may be climbing up in a jagged and maybe even a bit nervous manner, instead of a bright and sharp short squeeze.

Be careful!

Please do not make trading decisions based on these forecasts, assuming perfect accuracy. Everything forecasts are probabilistic. Short-term market movements are subject to unpredictable events and market randomness.

Control risks, respectively.

Longer-term forecasts tend to be more reliable as it takes time for the full effect of fundamentals to develop.

Demand continues to come in

We are seeing a solid bottom in the long-term futures markets as demand continues to come in. If you remember, in the last few updates, this is the signal I was expecting to state the onset of a bull market. Early signs appeared about two weeks ago, now they have developed into a pronounced pattern.

Taming of bears | on-chain forecast Supply and Demand in the Bitcoin Markets

While the green curve above reflects a stable balance of supply/demand from hodlers, who on average did not add coins to their savings over the past week, the chart below shows a constant outflow of BTC from exchanges for cold storage, which implies the existence of a mass of spot purchases, even if not from these hodlers.

Taming of bears | on-chain forecastNet inflow/outflow of BTC on exchange wallets. (12-day moving amount). BTC exchange balances continue to deplete.

Signals about the formation of the bottom and the reversal of the macrotrend

Below is a new indicator I’ve been working on lately. This algorithm looks for zones where inexperienced investors (in terms of how long they hold their coins) sell their BTC at a loss in high market demand based on price action. That is, in essence, he is trying to determine periods of accumulation with “smart money”, as a rule, coinciding with zones of formation of a bottom before a trend reversal. It is in such a zone that we are now.

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Accumulation UTXO

I would say that this is a relatively reliable indicator, as far as the market history for years. In particular, large bursts in it are accompanied by market capitulations, which complete the bearish macrotrends. The current phase in the context of the full history of BTC pricing looks like mini-cycles of shorter duration and amplitude.

Taming of bears | on-chain forecast Taming of bears | on-chain forecastBitcoin Liquid Supply Shock Oscillator – Supply Shock Oscillator for BTC Liquid Supply

BitNews disclaim any responsibility for any investment advice that may be contained in this article. All judgments expressed express exclusively the personal opinions of the author and the respondents. Any actions related to investments and trading in the crypto markets are associated with the risk of losing the invested funds. Based on the data provided, you make investment decisions carefully, responsibly and at your own peril and risk.

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