Update from Willy Wu. Little has changed since the previous review. We are still waiting for demand to return to the market.
Summary as of March 2022 of the year (current price $ ,1 thousand):
- Structural conclusions: Institutions and large holders continue to sell off.
Price Expectations: Bearish the trend is in place until we see signs of a return of demand to the market.
Personal opinion: There is no doubt that we are in a bear market due to the duration of the sell-off. In the BTC bear market, the bottom was never reached without capitulation. Therefore, I think there is a high possibility that the current levels will collapse and we will test lower lows before we start accumulating coins and preparing for the next bull cycle.
Please do not make trading decisions based on these forecasts, assuming perfect accuracy behind them. Everything forecasts are probabilistic. Short-term market movements are subject to unpredictable events and market randomness. Manage risk accordingly.
Longer-term forecasts tend to be more reliable as it takes time for the full effect of fundamentals to develop.
IN while hodlers are buying, demand has not yet appeared
We are seeing a spike in hodlers buying. Unfortunately, this is more than balanced by selloffs in the futures markets. According to the latest reviews, we are waiting for demand to come in, and I think that the first sign of this will appear in the futures markets, which tend to react faster.
Supply and Demand in the Bitcoin Markets
Whales/institutional continue to sell
Below is a chart of large BTC holders: when they sell, their influence is significant. Now we are in the mode of selling our coins by whales.
Coins move to and from whales