Gray Swan Checkpoint

The cryptosphere is famous for its dynamism and high volatility, which means that the market structure can change in a short time. Therefore, Glassnode analysts decided in addition to their regular reviews (here’s the latest one) to release interim posts with an update on the most relevant topics from the last big review. BitNovosti strives to provide its readers with the most up-to-date analytics that may be able to help some of you in making investment decisions, so let’s not neglect these checkpoints.

For those who missed the last review, here is the link:

Gray swan: the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?

The structure of the market has hardly changed since the publication of The Gray Swan. Gold and oil posted strong gains amid (almost) fruitless talks between Ukraine and Russia (let’s not downplay the evacuation corridors, though), and the US reported inflation of 7.9% y/y. In terms of risky assets, the equity markets continued their downtrend, while the price of bitcoin further dissociated itself from them in this volatile week.

The rise in oil prices and the “decoupling” of the BTC rate from the US stock market:

Bitcoin trading channel narrowed despite general volatility to $34–36 thousand affected by macroeconomic uncertainty . But the proactive stance of US regulators led to a decline. We state that buyers failed to raise the price to $38 Thousand as RSI Overheated on Comparatively Low Spot Volumes and Possible Rate hike Fed.

Trading channel narrowed to $25–36 thousand:

Looking at the behavior of long-term and short-term investors, it is clear that they have hardly reacted to the price movement of bitcoin, especially considering the surge at the beginning of the week. The volumes of the losing short-term and profitable long-term supply have broken their current trends, indicating relatively low buying activity in the bitcoin markets. In addition, investors showed less demand for downside protection as put premiums remained flat.

Investors are less reacted to price movements:

We are closely monitoring the macroeconomic environment, given that the dollar continues to strengthen against world currencies , while oil prices signal an “overheated” economy. The next Fed meeting will be held 35 March, and the probability of a rate increase to -42 b.p. is about 98%. As a result of a volatile week and uncertainty in the markets, the Bitcoin Risk Signal indicator from Swissblock moved into a high-risk zone, indicating weakness in bitcoin in the short term. term:

We will cover these topics in more detail in the next full review.

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