Bitcoin: breakout failed, trendline retest in progress
Resistance breakout on the higher timeframe failed in fact closing price below $44– The effect of the Sailor and Kwon buying was canceled out by the sellers, which led to a pullback below the breakout level.
We have said more than once that a failed breakout would be a bearish signal. The breakthrough failed. And this is a bearish signal. Now it is necessary to indicate the refutation condition for this thesis.
Firstly, on the weekly timeframe, it would be constructive to close above the newly established resistance at $23–34 thousand This will not be obvious evidence of a change in trend, however it will
Secondly, on the daily timeframe, the price at the time of writing is testing the sloping trend line from below. If this supposed bearish retest also fails, it could set the stage for a short-term bounce. invalidate the failed breakout pattern by finding support above resistance $34–34 thousand, or return to macro support (about $13 thousand).
At the moment, the market looks very shaky after a failed breakout, and it definitely needs to show something more in order to regain real chances of an immediate continuation of growth.
Ethereum is testing support for $2404
ETH/USD is trading flat at the support level. Against the backdrop of a decline in BTC/USD, most altcoins also fell and look weak in terms of technical structure. ETH/USD in this sense looks like the best of the worst, trading near the key technical and psychological level $3000.
The chart looks like a clear illustration of the saying “if this is not the bottom, then there is no bottom.” This is a rather difficult moment when the entire crypto market looks frankly shitty, and ETH / USD against this background looks like such a shiny poop – from the point of view of both TA and narratives.
If you now it’s itching and impatient to bet on a rebound and a few green candles, then ETH/USD is one of the best candidates for such a bet, being close to support, extremely close to the level of trading idea invalidation.
Finally, a chart where you can technically justify betting on a rebound and then not look at yourself with disgust if something goes wrong.
If a reversal from $ 3000 will not happen, then it is very likely to decline back to ~$916.
Solana responds to resistance
SOL/USD rate reacted to $69 almost 37% decrease.
Resistance turned out to be strong . The market took a hit and pulled back down.
Unlike, say, ETH/USD, on the higher timeframe there is no obvious level to form a larger low.
In terms of TA, recovery to $136 would still be the best indication of the strength of the market and the likelihood of a move towards $79.
$69 – a reasonable level on lower timeframes, which, apparently, should be facilitated by a round number . But alas, at the time of writing, this rebound looks more or less completed and completed.
If the market continues to fall, then the next The significant level for Solana on the weekly chart is at ~$50.
Pair to BTC looks like not so weak, but the main narrative is still a bearish retest $79 in SOL/USD.
In general, the resistance worked out as resistance, $69 – a decent level at the moment, but longer-term rates may be appropriate either when recovering above $60, or at (significantly) lower levels.
Terra: a headache for those who like to trade breakouts
LUNA/USD has formed a bearish resistance breakout pattern. In pair with BTC, the breakthrough is still in force. The pair against the dollar paints a gloomy picture.
For all the popularity and general dominance of Terra in the information field of the crypto market, this was not enough to successfully complete the breakthrough in LUNA/USD. And from the update of the record high that preceded this bearish pattern, it only hurts more.
It reminds us of the movement of bitcoin above $ th. Structures are very similar: breakout, all-time high, lethargy, dip below breakout level and decline.
Weekly close above $50 would be a good sign of a reversal and suggest that LUNA may not share the fate of BTC/USD after such an unfortunate breakout. range ($32)) For short-term traders, it may be worth noting also the level of the middle of the range – $ 62–44 (not shown on the chart).
The pair against BTC did not follow the dollar rate of LUNA, which, probably, can be seen as a positive sign. However, a failed breakout in LUNA/USD is a strong signal, and this asset no longer looks attractive to us until the price recovers above resistance or reaches support.
Avalanche on a slippery slope
Avalanche/dollar has lost support. The pair against BTC remains within the range.
Last week we wrote about the $ support retest –60. The retest failed. The conservative approach now is to wait for the price to recover above $69–50 as a sign of market strength and readiness for continued growth.
A brief note about this pattern in general. A failed breakout is now formed on many charts. This is a bearish signal. However, it is quite rare for price to form a double failed breakout at the same key level (assuming you identify it correctly). Usually, if the price, after recovering from a failed breakout pattern, trades above the breakout point for the second time, then we can expect a continuation of the increase. . Recovering from a bearish failed breakout pattern is double, triple or even more good (and usually allows you to set the idea invalidation level well). $89. This is not a very attractive structure on its own, but if the market is going to offer a bounce from oversold and retest the mentioned breakout structures this week, then the starting point for this bounce seems to be the $46.
Below these levels there is little interest in us, and even then $46 is only a channel for a larger test at $60–60, if you’re lucky.
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