The countdown has begun | on-chain forecast

“I’m on high alert, which is why I post reviews so often. This is another short update to keep readers up to date with what’s happening in the market.” This is an update from Willy Wu. Previous posts can be found here.

Summary as of March 1648 (current price ~$03,9 thousand):

Structural takeaways:

Demand in the futures markets continues to come in, reinforcing the on-chain picture. Fundamental signals indicate that bitcoin is in an accumulation zone, the kind that usually defines the end of a bear market.

Price Expectations: The countdown to the bullish breakout and exit from the bearish trend has begun. My guess based on price stability data is that we are 1.5-2 weeks away from this breakout, but it could happen sooner.

• Degree of confidence: high.
• Ethereum:

  on-chain demand for ETH is at an all-time high, and “technically” the picture looks strong relative to BTC. I expect ETH to outperform BTC in the coming weeks.

Be careful!

Please do not make trading decisions based on these forecasts, assuming perfect accuracy behind them. Everything forecasts are probabilistic. Short-term market movements are subject to unpredictable events and market randomness.

Control risks, respectively.

Longer-term forecasts tend to be more reliable as it takes time for the full effect of fundamentals to develop.

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Additional confirmation of the return of demand

The last 2 days have given us further confirmation of the return of demand in the futures markets against the backdrop of a still strong spot on-chain demand observed in the last 10 days.

Supply and Demand in the Bitcoin Markets

Stablecoin flows speak of accumulation

I tweeted this chart today and should be included in this review. Stablecoin flows suggest that the bear market capitulation has already taken place and we are now in an accumulation zone ahead of another bull market. And many charts of on-chain fundamentals look similar.

For those who are new to bitcoin bear markets like the current one, they usually end in a capitulation in which weak investors sell off their coins on the last drop in price, after which demand from long-term investors – “smart money” – is enough to form a stable bottom. This sets the stage for the next bullish phase.

The price stability level indicates that a breakout is near

The price stability indicator continues to rise, and it already looks like a significant peak is forming. If this growth continues against the backdrop of an influx of demand into the markets, then the situation will have signs of the last stage of accumulation before a bullish breakout.

Ethereum

On-chain demand for ETH renews all-time highs. “Technically” the picture in relation to BTC indicates a readiness for a breakout. That is, in the coming months, there is reason to expect better returns from ETH compared to BTC.

Ethereum Supply Shock