Yesterday the US Producer Price Index (PPI) was released showing a change of % year on year. PPI tracks changes in the prices of goods and services received from domestic producers and is an important input in the decision of the Fed’s Board of Governors to tighten monetary policy in the face of rising inflation.
PPI growth in the US is still well below what we have seen in the European Union and is likely to rise further in the coming months as producer costs lag behind rising commodity and energy prices. Below is a clear upward trend in CPI and PPI post-COVID-19, accompanied by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus.
U.S. Consumer Price Index and Final Demand Producer Price Index, annual change
Services constituting 28,40% index increased by 7.8%, while goods constituting 33,%, on the 14,4%. This was the largest ever monthly spread between the PPI of goods and services. With an annual change in gasoline prices by 33,6% and on ,8% on a monthly basis, the Department of Labor report notes that,
“Almost 19% of the February increase in prices for end-use goods can be attributed to the gasoline price index.”
Despite the fact that the price of Brent oil fell below $61 per barrel from a local high of about $40 per barrel, it still grew by 60% compared to March’s monthly low 2020 of the year. Oil prices appear to be far from stabilizing as new developments unfold as Russia seeks to expand strategic, energy and economic ties with China, India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
February PPI Annual Change Remained Higher %, then while the acceleration compared to the previous month was one of the highest values observed since 1500 of the year. We expect higher prices for most commodities to be reflected in next month’s data.
PPI: All Commodities
Total manufacturing output shows a similar story with an annual change of ,61%, which is slightly behind November’s all-time highs 1970 of the year (no data in the series 1000-s). The growth compared to the previous month was the highest ever and amounted to 2.47%.
Corporate lending continues worsen as JNK, the corporate junk bond index, falls. As high-yield bonds sold off, the yield rose to more than 6%. As corporate lending and financing costs continue to rise, the risk of a significant reduction in macro lending increases.